Perbandingan Performa Algoritma SVR, LSTM, dan SARIMA dalam Peramalan Produksi Kelapa Sawit
-
Desvita Hendri
*
Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru,
Indonesia
- Inggih Permana Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia
- Febi Nur Salisah Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia
- M Afdal Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia
- Megawati Megawati Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia
- Eki Saputra Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia (*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
Oil palm production in Indonesia fluctuates significantly due to various factors such as weather, soil fertility, and fruit bunch condition. These changes These changes have an impact on price stability, supply and planning for the palm oil industry. industry planning. Therefore, to improve decision-making in this industry, an accurate forecasting method is required to improve decision-making regarding distribution. appropriate decision-making regarding distribution. This study aims to compare the performance of three machine learning-based forecasting methods, namely Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), in predicting palm oil production based on historical data for the last 10 years obtained from PTPN V Riau. The evaluation results show that the SVR model with a linear kernel provides the best performance with an MSE value of 4.1718. with MSE 4.1718, RMSE 0.0020, MAE 0.0018, MAPE 0.2014% and R2 0.9988. The SVR model provides superior prediction results compared to LSTM and SARIMA. with LSTM and SARIMA in forecasting palm oil production. This research is expected to make a real contribution in the development of a more reliable prediction system, thus supporting operational efficiency and stability of the palm oil industry in Indonesia. stability of the palm oil industry in Indonesia.
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