Comparison of Certainty Factor, Dempster Shafer, and Bayes' Theorem in Expert Systems for Diagnosing Female Reproductive System Diseases
-
Mesran Mesran
*
Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Manajemen Sukma, Medan,
Indonesia
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8886-2013
- Roznim Mohamad Rasli Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, Tanjong Malim, Malaysia
- Setiawansyah Setiawansyah Universitas Teknokrat Indonesia, Bandar Lampung, Indonesia
- Muhammad Waqas Arshad University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy (*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
Expert systems are one application of artificial intelligence used to mimic the ability of an expert in diagnosing a disease. This study aims to compare the performance of three inference methods Certainty Factor, Dempster-Shafer, and Bayes' Theorem in the diagnosis of female reproductive system diseases. Symptom data and expert knowledge values were obtained from medical experts to support the system's validity. Each method was implemented on the same symptom data, and the results were analyzed to assess the consistency of the diagnoses produced. The results show that the Certainty Factor method produced a diagnosis of Cervical Cancer with the highest confidence value of 0.9999, followed by the Dempster-Shafer method with the same diagnosis and a confidence value of 0.852. However, the Bayes Theorem method produced a different diagnosis, namely Ovarian Cyst, with a confidence value of 0.911. These differing results indicate that the characteristics and approaches of each method significantly influence the final diagnosis outcome. This study contributes insights to expert system developers regarding the strengths and weaknesses of each inference method. The selection of the appropriate method must be tailored to the system's requirements, data complexity, and the level of uncertainty in the medical information used.
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