Peramalan Stok Penjualan Sahabi Frozen Food dengan Weighted Moving Average
- Muhammad Abdul Karim Universitas Muhammadiyah Magelang, Magelang, Indonesia
- Uky Yudatama Universitas Muhammadiyah Magelang, Magelang, Indonesia
-
Ardhin Primadewi
*
Universitas Muhammadiyah Magelang, Magelang,
Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
Jajan Sahabi Frozen Food (Jajan Sahabi) is a small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) located in Secang, Magelang, offering various types of frozen foods such as burgers, meatballs, and fries from multiple brands. Currently, inventory tracking at Jajan Sahabi is still conducted manually using a logbook, while stock replenishment is carried out weekly based on the remaining inventory. This approach leads to stock imbalances, either resulting in overstock, which may cause losses, or understock, which could lead to customer dissatisfaction. Forecasting is employed as an alternative decision-making tool to predict product demand based on historical data over a certain period. This study analyzes meatball sales reports from January 2022 to December 2022 using the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) method. The accuracy of the forecasts was evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The forecast results for January 2023 indicate that Meatball Ori is expected to sell 216.3 pieces with a MAD of 76.81 and a MAPE of 53.90%. Meatball Kanzler showed the best performance with a MAPE of 28.80% and a MAD of 28.53. In contrast, Meatball Ikan, Meatball Ikan TL, Meatball Fish dan Shrimp, Meatball Cheese Kanzler, and Meatball Wahid exhibited lower accuracy, with MAPE values ranging from 29.03% to 53.90%. These results suggest that the WMA method produces varying outcomes depending on the product, indicating that further adjustments may be necessary to enhance accuracy.
Downloads
References
A. Kyntani, R. A. Nadja, Mahyuddin, S. Bulkis, R. Bakri, and M. Thamrin, “Faktor Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Perilaku Konsumen terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Produk Frozen Food selama Masa Pandemi COVID-19 di Kota Makassar,” COMSERVA Indones. J. Community Serv. Dev., vol. 1, no. 10, pp. 835–849, 2022, doi: 10.59141/comserva.v1i10.168.
Eka Larasati Amalia, Yoppy Yunhasnawa, and A. R. Rahmatanti, “Sistem Prediksi Penjualan Frozen Food dengan Metode Monte Carlo (Studi Kasus: Supermama Frozen Food),” J. Buana Inform., vol. 13, no. 02, pp. 136–145, 2022, doi: 10.24002/jbi.v13i02.6496.
I. Setiawan, “Rancang Bangun Aplikasi Peramalan Persediaan Stok Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average (Wma) Pada Toko Barang Xyz,” J. Tek. Inform. Vol. 13, No. 3, Agustus 2021, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 1–9, 2021.
R. Rizaldi, Dewi Rahmawati, and Ari Dermawan, “Penerapan Metode Weighted Moving Average Pada Proses Peramalan Penjualan Kue Kering Difa,” J. Ilm. Multidisiplin Nusant., vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 96–102, 2023, doi: 10.59435/jimnu.v1i2.127.
F. Israwan and Haryati, “Implementasi Metode Weighted Moving Average (WMA) pada Peramalan Harga Pangan,” J. web Inform., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 1–5, 2020.
D. Purnamasari, E. R. Arumi, and A. Primadewi, “Implementasi Metode Single Moving Average Untuk Prediksi Stok Produsen,” JURIKOM (Jurnal Ris. Komputer), vol. 9, no. 5, p. 1495, 2022, doi: 10.30865/jurikom.v9i5.4946.
T. M. Anwar, U. Yudatama, and A. Primadewi, “‘Crafting Innovation for Global Benefit’ Forecasting Optimalization in Spare Part Inventory Applications on XYZ Temanggung Outlet Ltd,” vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 117–124, 2023.
Y. Ardana, W. K. Fadli, and Z. Faidi, “Prediksi Jumlah Pengangguran Provindi Riau Dengan Menggunakan Metode (Sma, Wma, Ema),” J. Teknol. Inf. Mura, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 109–119, 2023, doi: 10.32767/jti.v15i2.2130.
N. Azahra, S. C. Alifia, N. P. Andyka, S. Wijayanto, and M. Y. Fathoni, “Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Tebu Menggunakan Metode Time Series Model Moving Averages,” JURIKOM (Jurnal Ris. Komputer), vol. 9, no. 4, p. 840, 2022, doi: 10.30865/jurikom.v9i4.4388.
N. Khoerudin, S. P. Ramadhani, M. Hasian, V. Sinaga, and D. M. Kusumawardani, “Analisis Rantai Pasok Penjualan Sepatu Sekolah Masa Pandemi Covid-19 dengan Metode Weighted Moving Average,” J. Ris. Komputer), vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 2407–389, 2023, doi: 10.30865/jurikom.v10i1.5456.
M. Rizqi, A. Cahya, and N. El Maida, “Implementasi Metode Weighted Moving Average Untuk Sistem Peramalan Penjualan Markas Coffee,” INFORMAL Informatics J., vol. 6, no. 3, p. 154, 2021, doi: 10.19184/isj.v6i3.28467.
Z. Silvya, A. Zakir, D. Irwan, P. Studi, S. Informasi, and U. H. Medan, “Penerapan Metode Weighted Moving Average Untuk Peramalan,” Jitekh, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 59–64, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://www.jurnal.harapan.ac.id/index.php/Jitekh/article/view/220%0Ahttps://www.jurnal.harapan.ac.id/index.php/Jitekh/article/download/220/167
T. Wahyuni, A. Primadewi, and E. U. Artha, “Penerapan Metode Single Moving Average Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Potel Ketela,” vol. 4, no. 6, pp. 2947–2954, 2024, doi: 10.30865/klik.v4i6.1954.
R. Awanda and K. Oktafianto, “Peramalan Permintaan Paving Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average Dan Exponential Smoothing,” MathVision J. Mat., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 14–18, 2021, doi: 10.55719/mv.v3i1.252.
D. S. Lestari, A. D. Sabilla, H. Saputro, and J. Minardi, “Sistem Informasi Peramalan Stok Material Finishing Dengan Metode Weighted Moving Average,” Biner J. Ilm. Inform. dan Komput., vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 107–111, 2023, doi: 10.32699/biner.v2i2.5174.
F. Suroso, G. M. Rahmah, and D. R. A. Permana, “Implementasi Sistem Peramalan Kebutuhan Spare Part Mobil Dengan WMA,” J. Teknol. dan Manaj., vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 113–122, 2023, doi: 10.52330/jtm.v21i2.136.
I. Solikin, S. Hardini, F. E. Citra Sari, and C. M. Chaiago, “Membangun Aplikasi Metode WMA dan Metode SMA Sebagai Support System Pengambilan Keputusan,” J. Bumigora Inf. Technol., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 107–114, 2022, doi: 10.30812/bite.v4i1.1938.
S. Kusuma, C. Suhery, and R. Hidayati, “Implementasi Metode Weighted Moving Average Pada Sistem Prediksi Stok Tembakau Lokal Berbasis Web (Studi Kasus Outlet Progressive Nicotiana),” Coding J. Komput. dan Apl., vol. 9, no. 03, p. 400, 2022, doi: 10.26418/coding.v9i03.50860.
M. O. Kadang, D. Patulak, and S. Upa, “Implementasi Metode Weighted Moving Average Dan Single Moving Average Dalam Sistem Informasi Penjualan Pada Kios Maupa Toraja Utara,” Jtriste, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 125–137, 2022, doi: 10.55645/jtriste.v9i2.387.
F. Reba, A. Sroyer, S. Yokhu, and A. Langowuyo, “Perbandingan Metode Weighted Moving Average dan Single Exponential Smoothing Angka Partisipasi Sekolah Wilayah Adat, Papua,” Sainmatika J. Ilm. Mat. dan Ilmu Pengetah. Alam, vol. 18, no. 2, p. 161, 2021, doi: 10.31851/sainmatika.v18i2.6617.
Bila bermanfaat silahkan share artikel ini
Berikan Komentar Anda terhadap artikel Peramalan Stok Penjualan Sahabi Frozen Food dengan Weighted Moving Average
Pages: 1136-1144
Copyright (c) 2024 Muhammad Abdul Karim, Uky Yudatama, Ardhin Primadewi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (Refer to The Effect of Open Access).
