Perbandingan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Double Moving Average dalam Penjualan Produk Herbal HNI

Sunilfa Maharani Tanjung; Ali Ikhwan

doi:10.47065/josyc.v5i4.5810

Sunilfa Maharani Tanjung Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara, Medan, Indonesia
Ali Ikhwan * Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara, Medan, Indonesia

(*) Corresponding Author

DOI: https://doi.org/10.47065/josyc.v5i4.5810

Keywords: Sales; HNI; DES; DMA; Forecasting

Abstract

Predicting sales of herbal products is the main challenge faced in this research. Currently, forecasting is done solely based on previous sales records, which often prove to be inaccurate. As a result, the company frequently experiences unstable sales and faces difficulties in optimizing inventory and planning product orders efficiently to meet high customer demand. This situation often leads to significant cost losses, forcing the company to reduce capital costs for certain products to cover these losses. The problem arises because the company has not yet implemented an appropriate forecasting method, resulting in estimates that are not supported by a reliable system. This research aims to design and implement a Sales Management Information System for Herbal Products, focusing on the use of the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) and Double Moving Average (DMA) methods. Additionally, this study aims to compare the two methods in predicting sales by analyzing and calculating the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value for each method. The research uses 200 sales data points from 8 best-selling products, including one of the best-selling products, HNI HEALTH, with data collected from April 2022 to April 2024. The MAPE results from the sales data were then calculated by summing all the MAPE values and dividing them according to the number of MAPEs with an alpha of 0.3. It was found that the DES method is more accurate, with an average Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 0.285, compared to the DMA method, which has an average MAPE value of 0.292. The DES method is considered more accurate because its MAPE value is smaller than that of the DMA method.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

A. Dessisiliya, A. Ikhwan, and R. A. Putri, “Sistem Informasi Geografis Sekolah di Kota Medan Menggunakan Algoritma Haversine,” STRING (Satuan Tulisan Ris. dan Inov. Teknol., vol. 7, no. 3, p. 359, 2023, doi: 10.30998/string.v7i3.16277.

A. Fathi Farahat, A. Dewi Ambarwati, and A. Lestari, “Pengaruh E-Commerce, E-Crm, Dan Database Terhadap Sistem Informasi Penjualan (Literature Sistem Informasi Manajemen),” J. Ilmu Multidisplin, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 215–224, 2022, doi: 10.38035/jim.v1i1.31.

A. M. Harahap and A. Ikhwan, “Implementation of Information Technology Governance in Man 1 Medan Using the Cobit 5 Framework,” Sinkron, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 241–246, 2023, doi: 10.33395/sinkron.v8i1.11936.

Devi Astri Nawangnugraeni, “Pengembangan Sistem Informasi Manajemen Penjualan Untuk Meningkatkan Pelayanan Pelanggan Berbasis Web,” JTIK (Jurnal Tek. Inform. Kaputama), vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 249–259, 2023, doi: 10.59697/jtik.v7i2.18.

S. Sundari, M. Y. Syahputra, and ..., “Penerapan algoritma Shortest Job First (SJF) dan Priority Scheduling (PS) Pada Maintanance Mesin ATM,” Algoritm. J. Ilmu …, 2023, [Online]. Available: https://jurnal.uinsu.ac.id/index.php/algoritma/article/view/15377

D. Sarumaha, “Penerapan Metode Double Moving Average Untuk Memprediksi Penjualan Tiket Kereta Api,” J. Comput. Sci. Inf. Technol., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 10–13, 2021.

P. N. Eris, D. A. Nohe, and S. Wahyuningsih, “Peramalan dengan Metode Smoothing dan Verifikasi Metode Peramalan dengan Grafik Pengendali Moving Range (MR) (Studi Kasus : Produksi Air Bersih di PDAM Tirta Kencana Samarinda),” J. EKSPONENSIAL, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 203–210, 2023.

F. R. Hariri and C. Mashuri, “Sistem Informasi Peramalan Penjualan dengan Menerapkan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Berbasis Web,” Gener. J., vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 68–77, 2022, doi: 10.29407/gj.v6i1.16204.

M. Layakana and S. Iskandar, “Penerapan Metode Double Moving Average dan Double Eksponential Smoothing dalam Meramalkan Jumlah Produksi Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Pada PT. Perkebunan Nusantara IV Unit Dolok Sinumbah,” Karismatika, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 44–53, 2020.

W. Widarti, N. Darina, S. L. Chasanah, and E. Setiawan, “A Penerapan Metode Double Moving Average dan Double Exponential Smoothing pada Peramalan Nilai Impor Barang Konsumsi Tahun 2017-2022,” MATHunesa J. Ilm. Mat., vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 30–37, 2024, doi: 10.26740/mathunesa.v12n1.p30-37.

I. Bekti Ma’arif, A. Mahmudi, and J. Dedy Irawan, “Aplikasi Peramalan Penjualan Ikan Mujair Dengan Metode Double Moving Average ( Dma ),” JATI (Jurnal Mhs. Tek. Inform., vol. 7, no. 5, pp. 3106–3115, 2024, doi: 10.36040/jati.v7i5.7608.

R. D. Fauzi and M. D. Irawan, “Kombinasi Metode Double Moving Average dan Double Exponential Smoothing dalam Memprediksi Persediaan Suku Cadang Alat Berat,” vol. 7, no. 1, 2024, doi: 10.32493/jtsi.v7i1.38256.

N. M. L. I. Seno and I. Kamila, “METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PEMOHON PASPOR (Studi Kasus : Kantor Imigrasi Kelas II Non-TPI Depok),” Interval J. Ilm. Mat., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 23–31, 2022, doi: 10.33751/interval.v2i1.5163.

H. D. P. Habsari, I. Purnamasari, and D. Yuniarti, “Forecasting Uses Double Exponential Smoothing Method and Forecasting Verification Uses Tracking Signal Control Chart (Case Study: Ihk Data of East Kalimantan Province),” BAREKENG J. Ilmu Mat. dan Terap., vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 013–022, 2020, doi: 10.30598/barekengvol14iss1pp013-022.

A. D. Selasakmida, T. Tarno, and T. Wuryandari, “Perbandingan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Holt Dan Fuzzy Time Series Chen Untuk Peramalan Harga Paladium,” J. Gaussian, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://ejournal3.undip.ac.id/index.php/gaussian/article/view/32782

A. Nurfadilah, W. Budi, E. Kurniati, and D. Suhaedi, “Penerapan Metode Moving Average untuk Prediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen,” … J. Teor. dan …, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 19–25, 2022, [Online]. Available: https://journals.unisba.ac.id/index.php/matematika/article/view/337%0Ahttps://journals.unisba.ac.id/index.php/matematika/article/download/337/528

Z. A. Sari and M. Andarwati, “Peramalan Double Moving Average Dan Double Exponential Smoothing Jumlah Penumpang Di Stasiun Kotabaru Malang,” J. Inf. Syst. Manag. Digit. Bus., vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 263–272, 2024, doi: 10.59407/jismdb.v1i2.436.

I. Listiowarni, N. Puspa Dewi, and A. Kartika Widhy Hapantenda, “Perbandingan Metode Double Exponential Smoothng Dan Double Moving Average Untuk Peramalan Harga Beras Eceran Di Kabupaten Pamekasan,” J. Komput. Terap., vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 158–169, 2020, doi: 10.35143/jkt.v6i2.3634.

M. H. Kurniawan and D. Herwanto, “Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Moving Average pada Peramalan Permintaan Produk Gasket Cap di PT. Nesinak Industries,” J. Serambi Eng., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 2537–2546, 2021, doi: 10.32672/jse.v7i1.3709.

A. Ikhwan, “Designing An Android Based Online Bus Ticket Booking Application In Sumatra,” Int. Conf. Sci. Dev. Technol., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 123–128, 2022.

Bila bermanfaat silahkan share artikel ini

Berikan Komentar Anda terhadap artikel Perbandingan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Double Moving Average dalam Penjualan Produk Herbal HNI