Pengaruh Ekspor, Inflasi dan FDI Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Tahun 2020–2024 Dalam Perspektif Ekonomi Islam
-
Wanda Dwijayanti
*
Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung, Bandar Lampung,
Indonesia
- Ahmad Hazas Syarif Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung, Bandar Lampung, Indonesia
- Is Susanto Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung, Bandar Lampung, Indonesia (*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
Foreign exchange reserves are an important buffer for external-sector stability, while previous studies report mixed evidence on the effects of exports, inflation, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on reserves. This study aims to examine the effects of exports, inflation, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on foreign exchange reserves in five ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, during the 2020–2024 period. This research employs a quantitative approach using panel data analyzed with EViews 12 through panel data regression, partial significance tests (t-test), simultaneous significance tests (F-test), and the coefficient of determination (Adjusted R²). The results show that exports have a negative and statistically insignificant effect (β = −2.660880; p = 0.4120), inflation has a positive and statistically insignificant effect (β = 6,206,993; p = 0.8452), while FDI has a positive and statistically significant effect (β = 15.31527; p = 0.0069). Jointly, exports, inflation, and FDI significantly affect foreign exchange reserves (F-statistic = 4.560630; p = 0.017155), with an Adjusted R² of 0.359879. The findings indicate that strengthening foreign exchange reserves in ASEAN-5 during the observation period is more consistently associated with FDI than with the partial effects of exports and inflation. From an Islamic economics perspective, external-sector policies should emphasize justice, trustworthiness, transparency, and public welfare.
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