Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Kurs Terhadap Harga Saham dengan Profitabilitas Sebagai Mediasi
-
Cristian Danur Saputra
*
Universitas Palangka Raya, Palangka Raya,
Indonesia
- Solikah Nurwati Universitas Palangka Raya, Palangka Raya, Indonesia
- Pratiwi Hamzah Universitas Palangka Raya, Palangka Raya, Indonesia
- Dhina Sri Widyaningsih Universitas Palangka Raya, Palangka Raya, Indonesia (*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
This study was motivated by the inconsistency of previous research findings regarding the effects of inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates on stock prices, particularly concerning the role of profitability as a mediating variable in Food and Beverage sub-sector companies. The study aims to analyze the effects of inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates on stock prices, both directly and indirectly through profitability. This research employed a quantitative approach with a causal associative research design. The sample was selected using purposive sampling from Food and Beverage sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2020–2025 period. Data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with SmartPLS software through the evaluation of the measurement model, structural model, and the testing of direct and indirect effects. The novelty of this study lies in the use of profitability, proxied by Net Profit Margin (NPM) and Return on Assets (ROA), as a mediating variable in the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in the Consumer Non-Cyclicals sector. The results of the direct and indirect effect analyses indicate that inflation has a positive effect on stock prices (β = 0.006; t-statistic = 0.066; p-value = 0.947), interest rates have a positive effect on stock prices (β = 0.028; t-statistic = 0.215; p-value = 0.830), exchange rates have a negative effect on stock prices (β = −0.118; t-statistic = 0.945; p-value = 0.344), inflation has a negative effect on profitability (β = −0.059; t-statistic = 0.543; p-value = 0.587), interest rates have a negative effect on profitability (β = −0.179; t-statistic = 1.380; p-value = 0.168), exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on profitability (β = 0.342; t-statistic = 2.571; p-value = 0.010), profitability has a significant positive effect on stock prices (β = 0.349; t-statistic = 4.909; p-value = 0.000), inflation has a negative indirect effect on stock prices through profitability (β = −0.021; t-statistic = 0.533; p-value = 0.594), interest rates have a negative indirect effect on stock prices through profitability (β = −0.062; t-statistic = 1.313; p-value = 0.189), and exchange rates have a positive and significant indirect effect on stock prices through profitability (β = 0.119; t-statistic = 2.338; p-value = 0.019). This study provides empirical evidence by reinforcing the role of profitability as a transmission mechanism through which exchange rates affect stock prices and serves as a valuable reference for investors, companies, and future research.
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