Penerapan Metode Principal Component Analysis (PCA) dan Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) dalam Memprediksi Prediksi Curah Hujan Harian
-
Musfiroh Musfiroh
*
UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya,
Indonesia
- Dian Candra Rini Novitasari UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya, Surabaya, Indonesia
- Putroue Keumala Intan UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya, Surabaya, Indonesia
- Gede Gangga Wisnawa Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, Surabaya, Indonesia (*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
Since the last three years North Luwu has experienced frequent hydrological disasters in the form of floods and landslides. The disaster had a negative impact on the availability of clean water, failed to plant and even tended to reduce the quality of the harvest. Cocoa is one of the leading commodities of North Luwu Regency whose productivity has decreased due to the impact of climate change so that it will affect the sustainability of the local population's income. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to anticipate rainfall that will occur to prevent or reduce the risk of failure and loss. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Method is used as feature extraction to find out the most influential variables and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method is used as a prediction method. Future rainfall is predicted using meteorological variables such as pressure, evaporation, maximum temperature, average humidity, and sunshine duration from 1 January 2017 to 30 September 2022. Based on the PCA results, 4 variables are obtained that have the most influence on rainfall, namely: variable evaporation, maximum temperature, average humidity, and length of sunlight. These variables are used as input to predict rainfall using LSTM. In this study using trial parameters, namely the number of hidden, batch size, and learn rate drop period. The best prediction results were obtained for MAPE of 0.0018 with the number of hidden, batch size and learn rate drop periods of 100, 32, and 50 respectively. The prediction results show very heavy rainfall occurring on August 28, 2021 of 101.9734 mm, 21 September 2021 of 108.6528 mm, and 5 April 2022 of 116.5510 mm. In this study PCA was able to increase accuracy in considering all parameters and choosing the most effective.
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