Peramalan Penjualan Obat dengan Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average
-
Alvinatul Hidayah
*
Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Sunan Giri, Bojonegoro,
Indonesia
- Mula Agung Barata Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Sunan Giri, Bojonegoro, Indonesia
- Aprillia Dwi Ardianti Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Sunan Giri, Bojonegoro, Indonesia (*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
Luas Nusa Pharmacy faces challenges in managing drug inventory due to unpredictable demand fluctuations, often leading to overstocking or shortages. This situation affects operational efficiency and customer satisfaction. Therefore, a forecasting method is needed to help predict stock requirements more accurately. Forecasting is the process of estimating future needs based on historical data analysis, aimed at supporting decision-making in inventory management. This study employs the Single Moving Average (SMA) method to forecast drug stock at Luas Nusa Pharmacy. Weekly data from 10 best-selling drugs, namely Sanmol Tab, Andalan Biru, Promag Tab, Pirocam, Voltadex, Wiros, Tolak Angin, Stanza, Kalmethasone, and Antangin, were used as the basis for calculations over the past year. The study tested three forecasting periods: 3, 4, and 6 weeks. The results indicate that the 4-week period provides the most accurate prediction with the lowest error values: MAD of 34.80986, MSE of 1797.98, and MAPE of 13.80044, achieving an accuracy rate of 86.20%. The predicted drug stock for the following week, based on the 4-week period, is 224 units. With its high accuracy, the 4-week SMA method is recommended as an effective approach to help Luas Nusa Pharmacy manage drug inventory more efficiently. The implementation of this method is expected to minimize the risk of overstocking or shortages, improve operational efficiency, and ensure optimal service to the community.
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